Annual Update
Our Gone Fishin' Portfolio Smashed the Market in 2025
The S&P 500 - where the eight largest stocks now make up 40% of the index - has outperformed virtually all other investment alternatives over the past decade.
Yet that was not the case in 2025.
While the U.S. large cap index had another good year - up 17.9% - other asset classes performed better.
That was good news for our Gone Fishin’ Portfolio. It finished the year up 23.4%.
With The Oxford Club’s various trading portfolios, the goal is to outperform the market with individual stock selections.
But with the Gone Fishin’ Portfolio - our most conservative strategy - the objective is different.
Our goal is to beat inflation and earn high returns with as little risk as possible.
Let me explain...
Investing is essentially about two decisions: deciding what you want in your portfolio and how much of those things to have.
Our Gone Fishin’ strategy offers concrete answers to both questions - and therefore can work as a complete investment program.
The portfolio is based on a Nobel Prize-winning strategy and built on the most advanced principles of money management.
Yet it is simple and straightforward.
Investors merely divide their initial investment among 10 different funds that reflect our Oxford asset allocation model.
Then once a year they take 20 minutes to rebalance it.
This forces investors to sell high and buy low by regularly trimming back those asset classes that have appreciated the most and adding to those that have lagged.
Rebalancing returns the percentage of the portfolio invested in each fund to its original allocation.
(If you have fresh money to invest, you can achieve the same goal by holding on to the best-performing funds and adding to the underperformers.)
The rest of the year you are free to “go fishin’,” whether that means playing golf, traveling, spending time with your family, or casting a line in the shade somewhere.
Best of all, the strategy works.
Those who invested at the portfolio’s inception in 2003 - and rebalanced at the end of each year - have seen their original investment grow more than sevenfold.
It is also low risk.
Investors who own the Dow or S&P 500 are 100% invested in equities. That means they ride out every correction and bear market without a shock absorber.
Our Gone Fishin’ Portfolio, on the other hand, has 30% of its assets invested across high-grade bonds, high-yield bonds, and inflation-adjusted Treasurys (or TIPS).
The result: less volatility - and fewer sleepless nights.
The portfolio takes a global approach. That means it has substantial exposure to international markets, which make up 41% of the world’s equity market capitalization.
In last year’s update, I wrote...
The valuation gap between international markets and our domestic market is as wide as it has been in modern times. Yet history shows that when foreign stocks take off, they really sprint. And international equities are overdue for a big move.
That move got underway last year, especially with the dollar down 9%.
The Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (VEMAX) returned 24.75% in 2025. The Vanguard Pacific Stock Index Fund (VPADX) rose 33.14%. And the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund (VEUSX) did better still, up 35.42%.
Those funds - which make up 10% of the portfolio each - all contributed to the strategy’s outperformance.
Another kicker came from our 5% position in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX).
Precious metals had a banner year in 2025. And the fund returned 154.71%.
When I created the portfolio 23 years ago, few investors were indexers. That has changed.
Index-fund assets were 34% of total fund assets in 2025, according to fund tracker Morningstar. (That’s up from less than 2% in 1993.)
Why do we use index funds rather than actively managed funds?
Because our strategy is based on real-world results... not big promises.
History shows that 3 out of 4 active fund managers underperform their benchmark each year. Over periods of 10 years or longer, almost 90% of them do.
You’ve heard that you get what you pay for. But, in the world of actively managed funds, investors get what they don’t pay for.
You keep what your advisor would charge. You also enjoy superior performance.
Investment consulting firm Greenwich Associates notes that “over 10 years, 83% of active funds in the U.S. fail to match their chosen benchmarks; 40% stumble so badly that they are terminated before the 10-year period is completed.”
2025 was a typical year. While the S&P 500 returned almost 18%, the average U.S. stock mutual fund or ETF gained only 14.6%.
This is why low-cost, tax-efficient index funds are the best foundation for a long-term investment program.
I’m often asked why commodities aren’t part of the portfolio.
They are - indirectly - as our equity funds hold all the world’s leading natural resource companies.
But a broad commodity index is not part of the portfolio because it would be a drag on returns.
Yes, commodities have occasional periods of strong performance. And they are not highly correlated with stocks or bonds. But their poor long-term returns make them an unworthy addition to the portfolio.
Let’s look at the performance of this strategy since inception...
An investment of $100,000 in the Gone Fishin’ Portfolio in January 2003 - with dividends reinvested - was worth $809,055 at the end of 2025.
(These figures are net of all costs and can be verified through Vanguard.)
In sum, the Gone Fishin’ Portfolio allows you to manage your serious money in a serious way.
It - or something very much like it - should be the foundation of your investment program.
Why use this strategy? Because it eliminates six major investment risks:
- It keeps you from being so conservative that your purchasing power fails to keep up with inflation.
- It prevents you from being so aggressive that your portfolio - or a large portion of it - goes up in flames.
- It eliminates individual security risk. (Each investment is a broadly diversified fund, so there is no chance of a single security - think Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns - causing your portfolio to crater.)
- It ends delegation risk. As you can easily manage the portfolio yourself, no one can mismanage your money, run away with it, or siphon off an ocean of fees.
- It avoids economic forecasting and market timing. Since these can’t be done accurately and consistently - and therefore don’t add value - they are no part of this strategy (or of my other investment strategies, for that matter).
- It ends wasted time and effort. While other investors spend countless hours evaluating market data, financial advisors, or competing theories about the future, you’ll have gone fishin’ instead.
Fully consider that last point. Your most valuable asset is not your home, your bank account, or your investment portfolio.
It’s the amount of time you have left on this little blue ball.
The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio is a long-term asset allocation strategy that gives you a high probability of growing your net worth and meeting your most important investment goals.
But it also guarantees you more time with the people and pastimes you love.
Perhaps this last benefit is what recommends it most.
Good investing,
Alex
P.S. To learn more about this strategy and why it works, feel free to check out my New York Times bestseller on the subject: The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio: Get Wise, Get Wealthy... and Get On With Your Life.